“The reserves of renewable energy that are technically accessible globally are large enough to provide about six times more power than the world currently consumes - forever.” (EREC 2007)

There is now growing awareness on the imperatives for a global energy future which marks a distinct departure from past trends and patterns of energy production and use. These imperatives emerge as much from the need to ensure energy security, as they do from the urgency of controlling local pollution from combustion of different fuels and, of course, the growing challenge of climate change, which requires reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHSs), particularly carbon dioxide.

The scientific evidence on the need for urgent action on the problem of climate change has now become stronger and convincing. Future solutions would lie in the use of existing renewable energy technologies, greater efforts at energy efficiency and the dissemination of decentralized energy technologies and options.

To achieve an economically attractive growth of renewable energy sources, a balanced and timely mobilisation of all renewable energy technologies, is of great importance.

Renewable energy is not a dream for the future – it is real, mature and can be deployed on a large scale. Decades of technological progress have seen renewable energy technologies such as wind turbines, solar photovoltaic panels, biomass power plants and solar thermal collectors move steadily into the mainstream. The global market for renewable energy is growing dramatically; in 2006 its turnover was US$ 38 billion, 26% more than the previous year.

The time window for making the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy is still relatively short. Within the next decade many of the existing power plants in the OECD countries will come to the end of their technical lifetime and will need to be replaced. But a decision taken to construct a coal power plant today will result in the production of CO2 emissions lasting until 2050. So whatever plans are made by power utilities over the next few years will define the energy supply of the next generation. While the industrialised world urgently needs to rethink its energy strategy, the developing world should learn from past mistakes and build its economies from the beginning on the strong foundation of a sustainable energy supply. A new infrastructure will need to be set up to enable this to happen.

Renewable energy could provide as much as 35% of the world’s energy needs by 2030, given the political will to promote its large scale deployment in all sectors on a global level, coupled with far reaching energy efficiency measures. Models of Transition stresses that the future of renewable energy development will strongly depend on political choices by both individual governments and the international community.

By choosing renewable energy and energy efficiency, developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO2 emissions, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will have to reduce their emissions by up to 80%. There is no need to “freeze in the dark” for this to happen. Strict technical standards will ensure that only the most efficient fridges, heating systems, computers and vehicles will be on sale. Consumers have a right to buy products that don’t increase their energy bills and won’t destroy the climate.

A “business as usual” scenario, based on the IEA’s World Energy Outlook projection, is not an option for future generations. CO2 emissions would almost double by 2050 and the global climate would heat up well over 2°C. This would have catastrophic consequences for the environment, the economy and human society. In addition, it is worth remembering that the former chief economist of the World Bank, Sir Nicholas Stern, in his report clearly pointed out that the ones who invest in energy saving technologies and renewable energies today will be the economic winners of tomorrow. Inaction will be much more expensive in the long run, than taking action now. We therefore call on decision makers around the world to make this vision a reality.

The political choices of the coming years will determine the world’s environmental and economic situation for many decades to come. The world cannot afford to stick to the ‘conventional’ energy development path, relying on fossil fuels, nuclear and other outdated technologies. Renewable energy can and will have to play a leading role in the world’s energy future.

For the sake of a sound environment, political stability and thriving economies, now is the time to commit to a truly secure and sustainable energy future – a future built on clean technologies, economic development and the creation of millions of new jobs.

Models of Transition is an Artecoop initiative to investigate, analyze, develop and implement new models of energy use, which focusses on a range of technologies that are expected to emerge in the coming years and decades.

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References :

European Renewable Energy Council (EREC)
Climate & Energy Unit Greenpeace International